The next FAU? Five mid-majors to watch in 2023-24

When speaking of mid-majors in 2023-24, one question insinuates itself right at the top: Who will be this year’s Florida Atlantic? But before asking this, consider the possibility that the answer may be Florida Atlantic.

The Owls are ranked No. 10 in the AP preseason Top 25 poll, higher than Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky or North Carolina. Even a nominally “low” appraisal such as KenPom’s (No. 37) is perhaps best seen as having Dusty May’s team really and understandably high — in Division I’s 90th percentile — more or less.

By all accounts FAU will be strong, and the following discussion is instead devoted to other mid-majors looking to follow in the Owls’ tracks.

While we’re exempting programs from this discussion at the top, our quarter-century-and-counting “ban” on the term “mid-major” with reference to Gonzaga Bulldogs of course continues.

Such labeling is also waived for our present purposes with respect to Saint Mary’s and indeed this season’s entire Mountain West conference. After sending San Diego State to the national title game and ranking No. 6 among all conferences at KenPom in 2022-23, the Mountain West richly deserves its omission here.

So much for definitions. Here are five mid-majors worthy of your close attention in 2023-24.

Drake is following up on its first Arch Madness title in 15 years with a rather stark blend of old and new. The “old” includes not only reigning Missouri Valley Conference POY Tucker DeVries, but also returning starter Darnell Brodie. As the best defensive rebounder on an outstanding defensive rebounding team, Brodie pulled down no fewer than 181 boards off of opponent misses last season.

The “new” encompasses a horde of players making their first appearance on the Bulldogs’ roster. A repeat performance atop the Valley is in play if head coach Darian DeVries coaxes sufficient production from these. Perhaps some of the production will come from transfers Atin Wright (Cal State Northridge), Kyron Gibson (UT Arlington) and Ethan Roberts (Army), all of whom were starters at their respective programs in 2022-23.

For a second consecutive season, the Lopes will be powered by Rayshon Harrison and Gabe McGlothan. Harrison averaged 18 points and specialized at getting to the free throw line after transferring in last season from Presbyterian. McGlothan converts 2s at a high rate because fully 72% of his attempts inside the arc come at the rim.

They will be joined by fellow veteran Jovan Blacksher Jr. The 5-foot-11 senior was named last year’s WAC preseason POY, but missed most of the season with an ACL injury. Bryce Drew has imported size from major-conference rosters like Louisville (Sydney Curry) and Arizona State (Duke Brennan), but don’t look past Georgia State transfer Collin Moore. Over his final six games with the Panthers, the 6-4 junior averaged 19 points.

In five seasons in the Atlantic Sun, Ritchie McKay’s program won 82% of its conference games, reached the NCAA tournament twice and came within a basket of a third bid before falling 67-66 to Kennesaw State in the 2023 ASUN title game. Now Liberty is in the Conference USA, and stranger things have happened than this team winning the league in its first season of membership.

Granted, for that to happen, McKay must offset the loss of Darius McGhee, who scored nearly 2,700 points over five seasons with the Flames. Veterans such as Kyle Rode, Colin Porter, Shiloh Robinson and Brody Peebles will all be called upon to rise to that occasion while continuing Liberty’s tradition of stellar defensive rebounding.

Upon joining the Atlantic 10 last year, Loyola lost 16 of its last 20 and posted the program’s worst season in a decade. What reason is there to think this state of affairs could change in 2023-24? For one thing, last season’s 10-21 (overall) group derived less benefit from accurate shooting than just about any team you’ll ever see. Drew Valentine’s guys made their 2s — it just didn’t matter because there weren’t anywhere near enough attempts.

Assuming Valentine or Sister Jean or both can get this bunch to take care of the ball, returning scorers like Philip Alston and Braden Norris should pose a problem for opponents. It will also help if those conference opponents stop making 37% of their 3s. In any event, the Ramblers will need rapid improvement in an A-10 where Dayton, St. Bonaventure, Duquesne and VCU all project to be formidable.

In each of the past four seasons, Yale has either won at least a share of the Ivy regular season title or come within a game of doing so. This coming season projects to be more of the same. At 6-6, Matt Knowling blends scoring in the paint with a high assist rate. Those assists often find their way to either John Poulakidas or August Mahoney, who combined to average almost four 3s per outing last season on 42% shooting. At the other end of the floor, Bez Mbeng is reigning Ivy defensive POY.

Replacing the scoring and rim defense of EJ Jarvis will be no small task, but this will be far from the first trip around the Ivy for James Jones. Only Tom Izzo and Oakland’s Greg Kampe have been in their Division I men’s basketball positions longer than the Bulldogs head coach who, like Mark Few, was hired in 1999. (But Jones has bragging rights. He was named as the head coach in April of that year; Few got the call that July.)