Final Four predictions: Does UConn have this in the bag?

Members of one of the most unlikely quartets in recent college basketball history will fight to win a national championship in the days ahead.

Sure, most of the sports world expected UConn to return to this stage a year after a national title run, even though some of the stars from that team are gone. But Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle and Tristen Newton are also up against history: there hasn’t been a back-to-back champion in 17 years, and the past five national champions didn’t even get past the first weekend.

NC State wasn’t even in the projected field when the conference tournaments began. DJ Burns Jr. and Co. had to win the ACC tournament and mimic the 1983 national title-winning Wolfpack to get to this stage — a run that followed a 2-7 stretch at the end of the regular season. Purdue had to overcome the disappointment of last year’s loss to Fairleigh Dickinson, the greatest upset in NCAA tournament history, to get Matt Painter to his first Final Four appearance. And Alabama — a basketball school now? — developed the best offense in America to earn the program’s first trip to the Final Four.

Every remaining team has a compelling story. But who will leave Glendale, Arizona, with the crown?

As we begin the final weekend of the 2023-24 season, ESPN’s Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway, Joe Lunardi and Myron Medcalf discuss the tournament and the teams left standing — and make their predictions for another evening of blockbuster national semifinal games.

SCHEDULE:

No. 11 seed NC State Wolfpack vs. No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers: Saturday, April 6, 6:09 p.m. ET

No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 1 seed UConn Huskies: Saturday, April 6, 8:49 p.m. ET

The 2024 men’s tournament was both chalky and a little unexpected. Where does this NCAA tournament rank compared to previous editions?

Joe Lunardi: It’s not fair to UConn, but this tournament won’t likely be remembered fondly if the Huskies continue steamrolling the field. On the other hand, if UConn and Purdue give us an epic championship game, that will be the lasting memory of a great month. Either that or NC State giving the full Jimmy V experience on Monday night. Something extraordinary needs to happen in the Final Four to lift this year’s tourney beyond the level of “very good.”

Jeff Borzello: The perfect NCAA tournament for me is one that has several first-round upsets, one or two double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16 and powerhouse matchups in the later rounds. This year’s edition has come pretty close to ticking all the boxes. UConn and Purdue are still standing, all four 1s and 2s reached the second weekend, NC State has provided Cinderella magic and we had the likes of Oakland and Yale win in the first round. I’m a fan.

Myron Medcalf: I’ve loved this one because I think it has offered everything we enjoy about the NCAA tournament. Players from nondescript schools and stars from Power 5 powerhouses alike have all watched their profiles grow over the past two weeks. Zach Edey is a bigger star after leading Purdue to the Final Four. Jack Gohlke was the most popular player in the first round after Oakland’s upset over Kentucky. DJ Burns Jr. is a household name. So is Donovan Clingan. The NCAA tournament is at its best when it can produce a diverse set of heroes. This edition has done that.

John Gasaway: Sign me up for five or 10 more of these. We had the wacky first-weekend surprises, but we also got all four No. 1 seeds through to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019. Now here we are at the Final Four with two teams that were expected to be here (though some were wary about Purdue after last year) and two “surprises.” Well, Alabama beat the top two seeds in its region to get here, and NC State brushed aside a Duke team that toppled 1-seed Houston. No one’s moaning about any team’s “easy” path. I’m on Team 2024.

What excites you about this year’s Final Four participants?

Borzello: It’s the big man Final Four! A potential national championship showdown between Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan is mouthwatering to consider, while DJ Burns Jr. has arguably been the breakout star so far. All three are dominant in different ways, too. Edey does it offensively, Clingan does it defensively, Burns does it in his own unorthodox way. And of course, then there’s Alabama and its fast-paced, 3-point-happy style to counter the low-post dominance across the rest of the bracket.

Medcalf: I think UConn’s pursuit of history is the theme this weekend. Most national champions haven’t earned opportunities like this one. Can anyone stop them? Remember, they’re also not the first Final Four squad to arrive with an aura of invincibility. The 1998-99 Duke team had won 32 games in a row entering the national title game against UConn. That team lost. In 2015, Kentucky was 38-0 entering a Final Four matchup against Wisconsin. That team lost, too. The Huskies seem unbeatable, but we’ve watched teams in their situation miss the mark before.

Lunardi: No one is beating UConn. What separates the Huskies from the group of unsuccessful “inevitable” champions is their single-mindedness. Dan Hurley may be painful to watch at times, but his team is a perfect manifestation of a relentless will to win. I find him to be the most fascinating character in the tournament, the car accident we can’t ignore. And he will find every necessary enemy — from Edey to the NCAA travel office — to motivate himself and his team to win another title.

Gasaway: UConn has given us the gift of “no matter what” history. If the Huskies repeat? History. At the other extreme, losing to Alabama would be epic on the level of prohibitive favorite UNLV losing to Duke in the 1991 national semifinals. A loss to, say, Purdue in the title game? History! On the same level as the Blue Devils losing to (oh, the irony!) fellow top seed Huskies in the 1999 title game. Multiply the previous sentence times 10 in case of a Monday night defeat at the hands of NC State. This is big.

Lunardi: This should be a double-digit win for the Boilermakers. Even if you were to believe Edey and Burns are a wash (which they are not), Purdue is better at every other spot. This is also NC State’s longest layoff for quite some time, leading us to wonder if the magic dust might be gone. The Wolfpack lost four straight and seven of nine at the end of the regular season for a reason. I’ll be shocked if Purdue isn’t playing Monday night.

Score prediction: Purdue 78, NC State 65

Gasaway: No player at this Final Four claims a more impressive list of defensive victims than Burns. During NC State’s miraculous run across both the ACC and NCAA tournaments, the senior has scored on a who’s who of defenders from Duke (twice), Virginia, North Carolina, Texas Tech and Marquette. He’ll get his points, but opponents doing so hasn’t really been a worry for Edey and Purdue. The Boilermakers are as good as it gets when it comes to second chances. NC State’s defensive rebounding has held up surprisingly well the past four games, but Edey’s a different challenge.

Score prediction: Purdue 77, NC State 70

Medcalf: I don’t know if any team in the country has an answer for Edey. The bigger question: How many fouls does NC State have to give? Because the Wolfpack will foul Edey as they try to guard him. Burns could create problems for Edey with his passing and his ability to play in space — although Tennessee committed 55 fouls against Purdue over two games this season. Early foul trouble is a greater focus for NC State than neutralizing the best player in America.

Score prediction: Purdue 80, NC State 71

Borzello: Burns will be a unique matchup for Edey, given his ability to pass out of double teams and knock down face-up jumpers from the midrange or baseline areas. But I’m not sure defending the 7-foot-4 Edey with Burns and Mohamed Diarra, two 6-9 players who have dealt with foul trouble all tournament, is necessarily a solution. I’m not going to fully count out the Wolfpack, given the ride they’ve been on the past three weeks, but I think this game against Purdue is where it comes to an end for Kevin Keatts’ crew.

Score prediction: Purdue 74, NC State 66

UConn’s defense has completely shut down four consecutive tournament opponents. Could Alabama overcome it on Saturday?

Borzello: There’s a case to be made Alabama’s tempo and ability to attack or make shots from all five positions pose a different challenge than UConn has seen so far in this tournament. And the Crimson Tide have the ability to make 15-plus 3s in a game — a scary proposition. But Stephon Castle has already shut down Boo Buie and Terrence Shannon Jr., and he could do the same with Mark Sears. Meanwhile, Alabama’s fast-paced style could play right into UConn’s hands.

Score prediction: UConn 89, Alabama 76

Lunardi: It doesn’t matter if UConn shuts down Alabama (although I expect it will happen to some degree). What matters is whether Alabama can shut down UConn, and that’s not happening. Since losing to Auburn, 99-81, on Feb. 7, the Crimson Tide have allowed 90.4 ppg over 14 contests. If they allow 90 points against UConn, they’re going to get crushed.

Score prediction: UConn 92, Alabama 75

Gasaway: Alabama shoots as many 3s as a familiar Big East opponent for UConn (Creighton) but at a faster pace and, for many minutes, from a true five-out look. Not to mention the thing that makes the Crimson Tide truly different is that they really don’t care if they miss their first 10. They’ll keep firing away. The problem for Nate Oats is that the matchup between his defense and the Huskies’ offense appears, at least on paper, to be decidedly one-sided in UConn’s favor.

Score prediction: UConn 88, Alabama 75

Medcalf: Alabama has connected on 41.4% of its 3s in the NCAA tournament. If it can play fast and hit shots from the perimeter, theoretically it can compete. Thing is, that approach hasn’t worked for anyone against UConn. In their three losses this season, the Huskies played at a slower pace: 60 possessions (Kansas), 62 possessions (Seton Hall) and 59 possessions (Creighton). The four teams that pushed Connecticut to 70 or more all lost. Increasing the tempo isn’t a great solution against the Huskies.

Score prediction: UConn 95, Alabama 80

Who will be the star of Saturday night, and why?

Borzello: The easy answer is Zach Edey, since he’s averaging 30.0 points and 16.3 rebounds through four NCAA tournament games. But I’ll go outside the box and pick Alex Karaban. UConn vs. Alabama feels like a game that will be played primarily in transition, and Karaban seems to always find a way to effectively trail the play or fade out to the wing for a 3 on the break. And he’s lethal when he’s shooting in rhythm. He started to get going in the second half against Illinois and it feels like a true breakout game is coming.

Lunardi: The second-best player at the Final Four. In what figures to be a high-paced, high-scoring affair, UConn’s Tristen Newton might go for a triple-double against Alabama. Newton hasn’t really had a breakout game in the tournament, but I like his chances against the defenseless Tide. With triple-doubles already this year against Manhattan and Villanova, why not one more on the biggest stage possible?

Medcalf: I’ll go with Fletcher Loyer. NC State will have to throw everything it has at Edey and that will open the floor for Loyer, who has made 46% of his 3-point attempts in the NCAA tournament. While nothing seemed to fall from beyond the arc for the Boilermakers against Tennessee in the Elite Eight, Loyer should get an abundance of open looks on Saturday night, I think.

Gasaway: Let’s be bold: Michael O’Connell. It may not be enough to topple mighty Purdue and its outstanding Edey-centric offense, but good things can happen for guards who draw Matt Painter’s second or even third preference for backcourt defense. The Boilermakers will have their hands full with Burns and DJ Horne. O’Connell will benefit accordingly.